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Sovereign Bonds since Waterloo

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...

When Credit Turns Political: Evidence from the Spanish Financial Crisis

This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarization. We combine data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish Financial Crisis. First, we show that firms in a relationship with weak banks experience a reduction in their loan supply and employment growth. Next, we estimate the effects of unemployment on ...

Zinsen für Staatsanleihen im Euroraum 2022

Wir sehen die Gefahr, dass sich die EZB politischem Druck aussetzt: Interview mit Kerstin Bernoth

Committed to Flexible Fiscal Rules

90 Jahre Brüning-Rücktritt: Austeritätspolitik schadete der Wirtschaft schon in den 1930er Jahren

Erstmals werden ökonomische Folgen von Heinrich Brünings Austeritätspolitik zwischen 1930 und 1932 quantifiziert – Sparmaßnahmen verursachten einen Einbruch des Bruttoinlandsprodukts von zusätzlich 4,5 Prozent und zusätzliche 3,3 Millionen Arbeitslose – Forderungen nach Austerität als Reaktion auf gestiegene Schuldenstände in Europa sollten vor diesem ...

Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany

We investigate how internal distribution motives can interfere with the economic objectives of capital controls. In order to do this, we provide a model showing that elite capture can affect optimal debt repatriations and the management of official reserves under capital controls. Relying on these theoretical insights and a wealth of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we study one of ...

Managing Public Debt and Economic Challenges

Join us for an insightful presentation on the global impact of COVID-19 on public debt and the challenges it poses for policymakers. This lecture explore the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios, considering econometric analyses and historical experiences. Followed by a discussion. Key findings include: Fiscal consolidations: Timely and well-designed fiscal...

Praktizierte Verfahren der Konjunkturbereinigung: Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen

Brüning’s Austerity Policies of the Early 1930s Intensified the Economic Slump and Increased Unemployment

May 2022 marked the 90th anniversary of the end of Heinrich Brüning’s term as Reich Chancellor. To this day, the economic effects of Brüning’s extreme austerity measures remain unclear. However, new data and calculations have made an initial quantification of the economic consequences of Brüning’s policies possible. An analysis based on a time series model illustrates how the Weimar Republic’s economy ...