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Ampel-Monitor Energiewende #2: The State of Affairs on August 24, 2022

What if? The Economic Effects for Germany of a Stop of Energy Imports from Russia

Knappes Gas – Optionen zur Verringerung der Deckungslücke in Deutschland

In this article, we provide the results of a simple quantitative analysis of the potential remedies to reduce the supply gap in Germany that arises if Russia stops delivering natural gas. We take into account the supply potential of other suppliers, and combine this with an analysis of the additional supply potential by stopping electricity generation from natural gas. Moreover, we investigate the ...

Ampel-Monitor Energiewende Shows the Pace of the Energy Transition Must Be Accelerated Significantly

The so-called traffic light coalition is facing a challenge: it has set ambitious energy policy targets, but can only achieve them if the pace of the energy transition is increased significantly. To contribute to the current energy policy debate, the Ampel-Monitor Energiewende (Monitor of the Traffic Light Coalition’s Energy Transition Targets) was developed at DIW Berlin. Based on open data, the Ampel-Monitor ...

Electricity Supply in Germany Can Be Secured without Russian Supplies and Nuclear Energy; The 2030 Coal-Phase out Remains Possible

The European Union has increased pressure on Russia by enacting a coal embargo. Following a transition period, Russian coal imports will end in August 2022. Recent studies show that Germany will be able to substitute Russian supplies with imports from other countries by summer 2022. However, with the looming threat of a Russian gas supply stop, plans must be developed to ensure security of supply. ...

Small change won’t do – Why we must change the system to stop the climate crisis

The Climate crisis is hurting the people who have the least resources and voice. Climate action is urgent, and must be well designed to deliver a fair transition globally, as the recently published International System Change Compass (ISCC) describes.  After the G7 summit and before the political summer break the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) and the Open Society...

Renewable Energy Targets and Unintended Storage Cycling: Implications for Energy Modeling

To decarbonize the economy, many governments have set targets for the use of renewable energy sources. These are often formulated as relative shares of electricity demand or supply. Implementing respective constraints in energy models is a surprisingly delicate issue. They may cause a modeling artifact of excessive electricity storage use. We introduce this phenomenon as “unintended storage cycling”, ...

Centralized and Decentral Approaches to Succeed the 100% Energiewende in Germany in the European Context – A Model-based Analysis of Generation, Network, and Storage Investments

In this paper, we explore centralized and more decentral approaches to succeed the energiewende in Germany, in the European context. We use the AnyMOD framework to model a future renewable-based European energy system, based on a techno-economic optimization, i.e. cost minimization with given demand, including both investment and the subsequent dispatch of capacity. The model includes 29 regions for ...

Energy Supply Security in Germany Can Be Guaranteed even without Natural Gas from Russia

The Russian war on Ukraine and Germany’s dependence on Russian gas require a rethink of German energy supplies. While there is a heated debate about an immediate energy embargo, Russia could also stop its supplies at any time. To date, Germany has purchased around 55 percent of its natural gas from Russia. DIW Berlin has developed scenarios for how the German energy system could become independent ...

Uncertainties in Estimating Production Costs of Future Nuclear Technologies: A Model-based Analysis of Small Modular Reactors

Predicting future costs of technologies not yet developed is a complex exercise that includes many uncertain parameters and functional forms. In that context, small modular reactor (SMR) concepts that are in a rather early development stage claim to have cost advantages through learning effects, standardized design, modularization, co-siting economies, and other factors, such as better time-to-market ...