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852 results, from 41
  • Diskussionspapiere 1966 / 2021

    Sovereign Default Risk, Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Monetary-Fiscal Stabilization

    This paper examines the role of sovereign default beliefs for macroeconomic fluctuations and stabilization policy in a small open economy where fiscal solvency is a critical problem. We set up and estimate a DSGE model on Turkish data and show that accounting for sovereign risk significantly improves the fit of the model through an endogenous amplification between default beliefs, exchange rate and ...

    2021| Markus Kirchner, Malte Rieth
  • DIW Weekly Report 31 / 2021

    Restrictive US Trade Policy Has a Significantly Negative Effect on Financial Markets

    With its America First strategy, the former US administration turned away from an internationally oriented trade policy. It attempted to assert its interests, especially vis-à-vis China, with bilateral and mostly restrictive measures such as import tariffs. This Weekly Report shows that the costs of such a strategy are immense, at least in the medium-term analysis conducted: Almost all US industries ...

    2021| Lukas Boer, Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth
  • Diskussionspapiere 1959 / 2021

    What Drives Saudi Airstrikes in Yemen? An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamics of Coalition Airstrikes, Houthi Attacks, and the Oil Market

    Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has led a foreign military intervention against the Houthi movement, which took over major parts of Yemen. The intervention, which manifests mainly in airstrikes, has attracted widespread controversy in media and politics as well as a large body of (qualitative) academic literature discussing its background and ways to escape it. Complementary to these efforts and connecting ...

    2021| Dawud Ansari, Mariza Montes de Oca Leon, Helen Schlüter
  • Diskussionspapiere 1956 / 2021

    The Multifaceted Impact of US Trade Policy on Financial Markets

    We study the multifaceted effects and persistence of trade policy shocks on financial markets in a structural vector autoregression. The model is identified via event day heteroskedasticity. We find that restrictive US trade policy shocks affect US and international stock prices heterogeneously, but generally negatively, increasing market uncertainty, lowering interest rates, and leading to an appreciation ...

    2021| Lukas Boer, Lukas Menkhoff, Malte Rieth
  • Diskussionspapiere 1952 / 2021

    Optimism Gone Bad? The Persistent Effects of Traumatic Experiences on Investment Decisions

    Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996- 2000 provide an optimal base to address this question, as it is known for its emotional character and is reputedly “the last time Germans invested in stocks.” Using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) household survey data, I show that ...

    2021| Chi Hyun Kim
  • Seminar of the Macro Department

    Committed to flexible fiscal rules

    25.05.2021| Laura Pagenhardt
  • Seminar of the Macro Department

    The distributional impact of the ECB

    08.06.2021| Fabian Seyrich
  • Externe referierte Aufsätze

    The Nexus between Loan Portfolio Size and Volatility: Does Bank Capital Regulation Matter?

    This paper analyzes the effects of bank capital regulation on the link between bank size and volatility. Using bank-level data for 27 advanced economies over the 2000–2014 period, we estimate a power law that relates the volume of a bank’s loan portfolio to the volatility of loan growth. Our analysis reveals, first, that more stringent capital regulation weakens the size-volatility nexus. Hence, in ...

    In: Journal of Banking & Finance 127 (2021), 106122, 15 S. | Franziska Bremus, Melina Ludolph
  • Diskussionspapiere 1943 / 2021

    Home Bias in Sovereign Exposure and the Probability of Bank Default - Evidence from EU Stress Test Data

    Since the European debt crisis economists and politicians discuss intensively the sovereign-bank nexus. The high activity in sovereign bond issuance required to mitigate the burden of the Covid19 crisis will rather intensify this debate than calm it down. Surprisingly, however, we still have only limited knowledge about the impact of a home bias in sovereign exposure on bank stability. This paper provides ...

    2021| Dominik Meyland, Dorothea Schäfer
  • Schumpeter BSE Macro Seminar

    Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

    04.05.2021| Francesco Bianchi, Duke University
852 results, from 41