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Diskussionspapiere 2027 / 2022
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. ...
2022| Peter Haan, Chen Sun, Uwe Sunde, Georg Weizsäcker
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DIW Roundup 142 / 2022
While there is a broad consensus in the literature that stock ownership is associated with individual characteristics, such as wealth, income, risk preferences, and financial literacy, less is known about the dynamics of stock market participation (SMP). Major fluctuations in SMP are oftentimes related to political events, economic shocks, and technological disruptions. We discuss the literature that ...
2022| Lorenz Meister, Karla Schulze
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Workshop
22.05.2023| Florin Bilbiie, Maximilian Weiß, Federica Romei, Xavier Ragot, Leanne Nam, Alisdair McKay, Hannah Magdalena Seidl, Fabian Seyrich
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Diskussionspapiere 2037 / 2023
We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The exchange rate is significantly affected by US monetary policy shocks, where the persistence of this shock ...
2023| Kerstin Bernoth, Helmut Herwartz, Lasse Trienens
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Cluster-Seminar Öffentliche Finanzen und Lebenslagen
This paper exploits unique variation induced by two information treatments on a sample of German households in 2017 and 2018 to evaluate how subjective belief formation about stock market returns affects stock market participation and portfolio choice. I find that on average the information treatments do not shift individual expectations about returns significantly. Additionally, I show that...
07.12.2022| Sebastian Becker
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Externe referierte Aufsätze
Spillovers from US monetary policy entail spillbacks to the domestic economy. Applying counterfactual analyses in a Bayesian proxy structural vector-autoregressive model we find that spillbacks account for a non-trivial share of the slowdown in domestic real activity following a contractionary US monetary policy shock. Spillbacks materialise as a monetary policy tightening depresses foreign sales and ...
In:
Journal of Monetary Economics
131 (2022), S. 45–60
| Max Breitenlechner, Georgios Georgiadis, Ben Schumann
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Externe referierte Aufsätze
We test for the empirical relevance of partial and asymmetric dominant-currency pricing (DCP), the hypothesis that large but not necessarily identical shares of economies’ export and import prices are sticky in US dollar. We first set up a structural three-country New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which nests DCP, producer-currency pricing and local-currency pricing. Under ...
In:
Journal of International Economics
133 (2021), 103537
| Georgios Georgiadis, Ben Schumann
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Diskussionspapiere 2015 / 2022
Common ownership - when an investor holds shares in two or more companies - has recently attracted significant attention from policy-makers and researchers, studying mainly US firms. European firms, however, are different as top investors with large stakes, like governments, founding families and foundations are much more prevalent. This paper takes a well-known common ownership with micro-economic ...
2022| Nuria Boot, Jo Seldeslachts, Albert Banal Estanol
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Cluster-Seminar Öffentliche Finanzen und Lebenslagen
Policymakers widely use tax-based incentives to spur investment and stimulate economic growth. Tax policy has been at the center of emergency measures during the Covid-19 pandemic, and it is now as countries face a significant deterioration in public finances. Yet, empirical tax research is still in disagreement on how taxes affect business investment. We investigate the effect of local business...
15.02.2023| Charlotte Bartels
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Externe referierte Aufsätze
This paper investigates the effect of insolvency regulation reforms on cross-border debt and equity investments at aggregate and sectoral levels. Using disaggregated data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) database and the OECD indicators on efficiency of insolvency regulations, we find that investors increase their debt and equity holdings in the countries that undertook ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
131 (2023), 102795
| Tatsiana Kliatskova, Loïc Baptiste Savatier, Michael Schmidt