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Externe referierte Aufsätze
This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...
In:
The Quarterly Journal of Economics
137 (2022), 3, S. 1615–1680
| Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
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Diskussionspapiere 2042 / 2023
This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarization. We combine data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish Financial Crisis. First, we show that firms in a relationship with weak banks experience a reduction in their loan supply and employment growth. Next, we estimate the effects of unemployment on ...
2023| Pia Hüttl, Simon Baumgartner
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Research Project
Current Project| Macroeconomics, Forecasting and Economic Policy
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Externe Monographien
Paris:
Banque de France,
2021,
III, 43 S.
(Working Papers / Banque de France ; 854)
| Chistoph Grosse-Steffen, Laura Pagenhardt, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 1992 / 2022
We investigate how internal distribution motives can interfere with the economic objectives of capital controls. In order to do this, we provide a model showing that elite capture can affect optimal debt repatriations and the management of official reserves under capital controls. Relying on these theoretical insights and a wealth of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we study one of ...
2022| Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
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Externe referierte Aufsätze
Adjusting green public support programmes to green premiums can reduce public spending, yet this is challenged by uncertainty. Underfunding green technologies can delay the green transition, and overfunding them can increase transition costs. Both risks of under- and overfunding can be reduced using responsive adjustments.
In:
Nature Climate Change
(2023), im Ersch. [Online first: 2023-06-26]
| Till Köveker, Olga Chiappinelli, Mats Kröger, Oliver Lösch, Karsten Neuhoff, Jörn C. Richstein, Xi Sun
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Event
Join us for an insightful presentation on the global impact of COVID-19 on public debt and the challenges it poses for policymakers. This lecture explore the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios, considering econometric analyses and historical experiences. Followed by a discussion.
Key findings include:
Fiscal consolidations: Timely and well-designed fiscal...
14.06.2023| Asonuma Tamon, Josefin Meyer
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SOEP Brown Bag Seminar
After the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis, Catalonia is set to be the place of the most ambitious Universal Basic Income (UBI) pilot experiment in Europe to date. Up to 5,000 participants will be selected to receive for two years (2023-2024) an individual cash benefit of 800 EUR (300 EUR for minors), unconditionally. The Catalan pilot project will also test the...
10.08.2022| Aida Martínez Tinaut, Team of Experts for Catalonia's Office of the Pilot Plan to Implement the Universal Basic Income
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DIW Weekly Report 24/25 / 2022
May 2022 marked the 90th anniversary of the end of Heinrich Brüning’s term as Reich Chancellor. To this day, the economic effects of Brüning’s extreme austerity measures remain unclear. However, new data and calculations have made an initial quantification of the economic consequences of Brüning’s policies possible. An analysis based on a time series model illustrates how the Weimar Republic’s economy ...
2022| Stephanie Ettmeier, Alexander Kriwoluzky
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Externe referierte Aufsätze
Sovereign borrowers may tighten their fiscal stance in order to signal their creditworthiness to lenders. In a model of sovereign debt with incomplete information, I show that a trustworthy country may reduce its debt beyond the optimal level in order to separate itself from less reliable countries. Since austerity is costly, the gains in the price of debt from separating need to be high enough, as ...
In:
European Economic Review
144 (2022), 104090, 27 S.
| Anna Gibert