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Externe referierte Aufsätze

Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo

This paper studies external sovereign bonds as an asset class. We compile a new database of 266,000 monthly prices of foreign-currency government bonds traded in London and New York between 1815 (the Battle of Waterloo) and 2016, covering up to 91 countries. Our main insight is that, as in equity markets, the returns on external sovereign bonds have been sufficiently high to compensate for risk. Real ...

In: The Quarterly Journal of Economics (2022), im Ersch. [online first: 2022-01-31] | Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart, Christoph Trebesch
Diskussionspapiere 1992 / 2022

Foreign Debt, Capital Controls, and Secondary Markets: Theory and Evidence from Nazi Germany

We investigate how internal distribution motives can interfere with the economic objectives of capital controls. In order to do this, we provide a model showing that elite capture can affect optimal debt repatriations and the management of official reserves under capital controls. Relying on these theoretical insights and a wealth of quantitative and qualitative historical evidence, we study one of ...

2022| Andrea Papadia, Claudio A. Schioppa
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Government Spending Multipliers in (Un)certain Times

We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...

In: Journal of Public Economics 203 (2021), 104513, 18 S. | Jan Philipp Fritsche, Mathias Klein, Malte Rieth
Monographien

Committed to Flexible Fiscal Rules

Paris: Banque de France, 2021, III, 43 S.
(Working Papers / Banque de France ; 854)
| Chistoph Grosse-Steffen, Laura Pagenhardt, Malte Rieth
Monographien

Government Spending Multipliers in (Un)certain Times

We estimate the dynamic effects of government spending shocks, using time-varying volatility in US data modeled through a Markov switching process. We find that the average government spending multiplier is significantly and persistently above one, driven by a crowding-in of private consumption and non-residential investment. We rationalize the results empirically through a contemporaneously countercyclical ...

Berlin: DIW Berlin, 2019, 27 S. | Jan Philipp Fritsche, Mathias Klein, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 24/25 / 2022

Brüning’s Austerity Policies of the Early 1930s Intensified the Economic Slump and Increased Unemployment

May 2022 marked the 90th anniversary of the end of Heinrich Brüning’s term as Reich Chancellor. To this day, the economic effects of Brüning’s extreme austerity measures remain unclear. However, new data and calculations have made an initial quantification of the economic consequences of Brüning’s policies possible. An analysis based on a time series model illustrates how the Weimar Republic’s economy ...

2022| Stephanie Ettmeier, Alexander Kriwoluzky
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Signalling Creditworthiness with Fiscal Austerity

Sovereign borrowers may tighten their fiscal stance in order to signal their creditworthiness to lenders. In a model of sovereign debt with incomplete information, I show that a trustworthy country may reduce its debt beyond the optimal level in order to separate itself from less reliable countries. Since austerity is costly, the gains in the price of debt from separating need to be high enough, as ...

In: European Economic Review 144 (2022), 104090, 27 S. | Anna Gibert
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2022

Tax Revenue: Swifter Recovery during the Coronavirus Pandemic than during the Global Financial Crisis

Although economic growth continued to be lukewarm in 2021, tax revenue increased significantly, even exceeding the pre-crisis level despite economic policy measures associated with revenue losses. During the 2008-2011 global financial crisis, tax revenue followed a different path: Its recovery lagged behind economic recovery, first reaching the pre-crisis level in 2011. In 2021, value-added tax (VAT) ...

2022| Kristina van Deuverden
Brown Bag Seminar Industrial Economics

Emergency Aid for the Self-Employed in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Flash in the Pan?

The self-employed are among those facing the highest probability of strong income losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Governments in many countries introduced support programs to support the self-employed, including the German federal government, which approved a €50bn emergency aid program at the end of March 2020 offering one-off lump-sum payments of up to €15,000 to those facing...

07.05.2021| Caroline Stiel, DIW Berlin
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Equilibrium Effects of Tax Exemptions for Low Pay

Across the world, tax exemptions for jobs with low earnings intend to incite non-participating workers to rejoin the labor market. However, such tax exemptions may also have negative equilibrium effects. The German minijob tax exemption offers a convenient case to identify equilibrium effects as it applies to some but not to other low-wage jobs. We build and estimate a structural job search model with ...

In: Labour Economics 69 (2021), 101976, 15 S. | Luke Haywood, Michael Neumann
279 results, from 1
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