The German economy is steering through difficult waters and faces the highest inflation rates in decades. In their spring report, the leading German economic research institutes revise their outlook for this year significantly downward. The recovery from the COVID-19 crisis is slowing down as a result of the war in Ukraine, but remains on track. The institutes expect GDP to increase by 2.7 and 3.1 ...
As the German economy and the EU are emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus is shifting to questions of long-term transformation. How can we transform our economies while also limiting climate change and preparing for its impact?
The pandemic has accelerated digitalization of German firms and many have already invested to deal with climate change. At the same time, concerns about the...
15.02.2022| Franziska Brantner, Klaus Deutsch, Ambroise Fayolle, Debora Revoltella, Matthias Rumpf, Marcel Fratzscher
Externe referierte Aufsätze
This paper investigates the effect of insolvency regulation reforms on cross-border debt and equity investments at aggregate and sectoral levels. Using disaggregated data from the ECB’s Securities Holdings Statistics by Sector (SHSS) database and the OECD indicators on efficiency of insolvency regulations, we find that investors increase their debt and equity holdings in the countries that undertook ...
Journal of International Money and Finance
131 (2023), 102795
| Tatsiana Kliatskova, Loïc Baptiste Savatier, Michael Schmidt
DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2023
Following the construction boom of recent years in Germany, inflation and supply bottlenecks hit the industry hard in 2022. While nominal construction volume increased by nearly 14 percent, it decreased by two percent when adjusted for inflation. Residential construction, which is urgently needed, was particularly affected. In 2023 and 2024, it is expected that investors will show restraint and that ...
2023| Martin Gornig, Laura Pagenhardt
Brown Bag Seminar Industrial Economics
This paper provides novel empirical results on the welfare impact of sanctions when countries coordinate their sanctions packages. To do so, weconduct simulations with the Caliendo and Parro (2015) CGE model of the world economy that provides changes in welfare under different hypothetical setups of sanctions coalitions. Focusing on the 2012 wave of sanctions against Iran and the 2014 sanctions...
07.04.2022| Sonali Chowdhry, Kiel Institute for the World Economy
DIW Weekly Report 7/8 / 2022
The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places—mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns—and there are prospects of easing restrictions in Germany as well, the labor shortage caused by the current rates of infection is noticeable. ...
2022| Guido Baldi, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Hella Engerer, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Frederik Kurcz, Laura Pagenhardt
Diskussionspapiere 2023 / 2022
We link investor ownership to profit loads on rival firms by the managers of a firm. We propose a theory model in which we distinguish between passive and active investors’ holdings, where passive investors are relatively more diversified. We find that if passive investors become relatively bigger, then common ownership incentives increase. We show that these higher incentives, in turn, are linked ...
2022| Albert Banal-Estanol, Jo Seldeslachts, Xavier Vives
Externe referierte Aufsätze
In this paper, we investigate how European households changed the diversity of their financial portfolios in response to the Great Financial and the subsequent European Debt Crisis. For this purpose we apply a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach estimated as a correlated random effects (CRE) model to six waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). We find that households ...
International Review of Economics and Finance
83 (2023), S. 330-347
| Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan, Henriette Weser
| Karsten Neuhoff, Olga Chiappinelli, Timo Gerres, Roland Ismer, Till Köveker, Pedro Linares, Jörn Richstein
DIW Weekly Report 24/25 / 2022
May 2022 marked the 90th anniversary of the end of Heinrich Brüning’s term as Reich Chancellor. To this day, the economic effects of Brüning’s extreme austerity measures remain unclear. However, new data and calculations have made an initial quantification of the economic consequences of Brüning’s policies possible. An analysis based on a time series model illustrates how the Weimar Republic’s economy ...
2022| Stephanie Ettmeier, Alexander Kriwoluzky