The resurgence of the pandemic and renewed lockdowns have slowed the recovery of the global economy, but the overall losses will be less severe than after the first coronavirus wave in spring 2020. Industry in particular continues to develop well. In contrast, retail trade and personal services have been heavily affected, especially in hard-hit regions such as Europe. However, the fiscal stimulus cushions ...
This paper provides novel empirical results on the welfare impact of sanctions when countries coordinate their sanctions packages. To do so, weconduct simulations with the Caliendo and Parro (2015) CGE model of the world economy that provides changes in welfare under different hypothetical setups of sanctions coalitions. Focusing on the 2012 wave of sanctions against Iran and the 2014 sanctions...
The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places—mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns—and there are prospects of easing restrictions in Germany as well, the labor shortage caused by the current rates of infection is noticeable. ...
As the German economy and the EU are emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic, the focus is shifting to questions of long-term transformation. How can we transform our economies while also limiting climate change and preparing for its impact? The pandemic has accelerated digitalization of German firms and many have already invested to deal with climate change. At the same time, concerns about the...
Recently, the coronavirus pandemic has caused economic developments in major economies to drift apart: While infection rates were declining and production was experiencing strong growth in places such as Europe and the United States in the second quarter of 2021, emerging economies were experiencing strict economic restrictions due to high case numbers. In some of these countries, the economy declined. ...
The German economy is taking longer than expected to overcome the pandemic: It is likely to increase by only 2.1 percent in 2021 and capacities remain markedly underutilized. In addition, global supply bottlenecks are affecting German industry, resulting in stalled domestic production despite high demand. Following a profitable summer due to low case numbers and progress in the vaccination campaign, ...
Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination campaigns will presumably lead to a revival that will be especially noticeable in the retail and service sectors ...
By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control. Nevertheless, industry is robust overall, primarily due to good foreign business. In the service ...
Do memories of highly emotional stock market crashes permanently affect the investment decisions of households? The Initial Public Offerings of Deutsche Telekom during 1996- 2000 provide an optimal base to address this question, as it is known for its emotional character and is reputedly “the last time Germans invested in stocks.” Using Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) household survey data, I show that ...
This paper provides a review of trends in third generation nuclear power plants, and analyzes current and future nuclear power plant investments using Monte Carlo simulations of economic indicators. We first review global trends of nuclear power plant investments, including technical as well as economic trends. The review suggests that cost escalations in the sector observed in previous research continue ...