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DIW Economic Bulletin 4 / 2011

Speculative Bubble on Housing Markets: Elements of an Early Warning System

Excessive speculation on asset markets can cause significant macroeconomic losses in terms of production and employment. Such developments should be detected as early and as reliably as possible in order to enable corrective action through adequate economic policy measures. This is the goal of the early warning system, which was developed by DIW Berlin on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Finance for ...

2011| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Diskussionspapiere 1142 / 2011

An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles

In this paper, we construct the country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1- 2010:Q2. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental and a filter approaches. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one that provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, we suggest an early warning ...

2011| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
Externe referierte Aufsätze

What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel

In this study, we suggest an explanation for the low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over the period 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable percapita income, the real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices ...

In: Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 230 (2010), 1, S.59-76 | Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Jan-Oliver Menz, Boriss Siliverstovs
Weekly Report 6 / 2010

Building Sector: Stimulus Packages Make an Impact

The sharp slump of the German economy has left its mark on the building sector. Commercial construction has been especially affected by the significant decline in companies' propensity to invest - triggered by the macroeconomic downturn. However, due to the stable development of real wages and the overall labour market as well as targeted supporting programmes, the recession has more or less bypassed ...

2010| Martin Gornig, Sebastian Weber
Monographien

Is there a Bubble in the Chinese Housing Market?

Frankfurt / Oder: Europa-Univers. Viadrina, 2010, 25 S.
(Discussion Paper / European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics ; 290)
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
Diskussionspapiere 1081 / 2010

Is There a Bubble in the Chinese Housing Market?

For many analysts, the Chinese economy is spurred by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with pos-sible adverse effects to the real economy. To get insights into the size of the bubble, the house price evolution is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a dataset for 35 major cities. Cointegration ...

2010| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
Diskussionspapiere 860 / 2009

Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?

The appropriate design of monetary policy in integrated financial markets is one of the most challenging areas for central banks. One hot topic is whether the rise in liquidity in recent years has contributed to the formation of price bubbles in asset markets. If strong linkages exist, the inclusion of asset prices in the monetary policy rule can eventually limit speculative runs and negative effects ...

2009| Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
FINESS Working Papers 7.4A / 2009

Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?

The appropriate design of monetary policy in integrated financial markets is one of the most challenging areas for central banks. One hot topic is whether the rise in liquidity in recent years has contributed to the formation of price bubbles in asset markets. If strong linkages exist, the inclusion of asset prices in the monetary policy rule can eventually limit speculative runs and negative effects ...

2009| Christian Dreger, Jürgen Wolters
Diskussionspapiere 758 / 2007

What Drives Housing Prices Down? Evidence from an International Panel

In this study, we suggest an explanation for the alarmingly low growth rates of real housing prices in Canada and Germany in comparison to other OECD countries over 1975-2005. We show that the long-run development of housing markets is determined by real disposable per capita income, real long-term interest rate, population growth, and urbanization. The differential development of real housing prices ...

2007| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Jan-Oliver Menz, Boriss Siliverstovs
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