DIW Berlin - Politikberatung kompakt 120 / 2017
2017| Kerstin Bernoth, Stefan Gebauer, Dorothea Schäfer
Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and empirically realistic long-run levels of both capital taxes and public debt. Prior predictive analysis shows ...
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
85 (2017), S. 1-20
| Malte Rieth
Diskussionspapiere 1697 / 2017
This paper characterizes capital taxation and public debt policy in a quantitative macroeconomic model with an impatient government and uncertainty. The government has access to linear taxes on capital and labor, and to non-state-contingent bonds. Government impatience generates positive and empirically realistic longrun levels of both capital taxes and public debt. Prior predictive analysis shows ...
2017| Malte Rieth
Refereed essays Web of Science
We employ a structural global VAR model to analyze whether U.S. unconventional monetary policy shocks, identified through changes in the central bank’s balance sheet, have an impact on financial and economic conditions in emerging market economies (EMEs). Moreover, we study whether international capital flows are an important channel of shock transmission. We find that an expansionary policy shock ...
Journal of International Money and Finance
73 (2017), Part B., S. 275-295
| Pablo Anaya, Michael Hachula, Christian J. Offermanns
Diskussionspapiere 1665 / 2017
In this paper, we examine the predictive ability of automatic and expert-rated media sentiment indicators for German inflation. We find that sentiment indicators are competitive in providing inflation forecasts against a large set of common macroeconomic and financial predictors. Sophisticated linguistic sentiment algorithms and business cycle news rated by experts perform best and are superior to ...
2017| Benjamin Beckers, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Dirk Ulbricht
Diskussionspapiere 1661 / 2017
Euro area countries and Japan are confronted with similar challenges. Potential output is on a falling trend in the euro area, and the decrease started well before the financial crisis. In Japan, low output growth is a striking feature since many years, despite the unconventional monetary policy stance and massive fiscal stimulus programs provided by the government. According to a growth accounting ...
2017| Christian Dreger
Diskussionspapiere 1654 / 2017
We examine whether monetary transmission during the financial and sovereign debt crisis was dominated by the cost channel or by the demand-side channel effect. We use two approaches to track down the potential passthrough of changes in the monetary policy rate to those in consumer prices. First, we utilize panel data from the German manufacturing industry. Second, we conduct time series analyses for ...
2017| Dorothea Schäfer, Andreas Stephan, Khanh Trung Hoang
DIW Roundup 108 / 2017
The term natural (or neutral) real interest rate refers to the equilibrium value of the real interest rate. As this equilibrium is usually conceived as a situation where inflationary or deflationary pressures have abated, the natural real interest rate is a key concept for central banks seeking to stabilize the general price level or targeting the rate of inflation. The present roundup provides a brief ...
2017| Philipp König, Dmitry Chervyakov
DIW Roundup 109 / 2017
The concept of the natural rate of interest (NRI) dates back to Wicksell (1898) and has since then been highly debated in the economic literature. In practice, estimates of the NRI can be employed as a versatile tool for macroeconomic analysis and are a core element within the popular neo-Wicksellian (or New-Keynesian) framework. The real rate gap, i.e. the difference between the actual interest rate ...
2017| Dmitry Chervyakov, Philipp König
Zeitungs- und Blogbeiträge
Handelsblatt Global Edition
| Marcel Fratzscher