Zeitungs- und Blogbeiträge
| Marcel Fratzscher, Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Tobias Stöhr
Diskussionspapiere 1721 / 2018
We study the characteristics of inflation targeting as a shock absorber, using quarterly data for a large panel of countries. To overcome an endogeneity problem between monetary regimes and the likelihood of crises, we propose to study large natural disasters. We find that inflation targeting improves macroeconomic performance following such exogenous shocks. It lowers inflation, raises output growth, ...
2018| Marcel Fratzscher, Christoph Grosse Steffen, Malte Rieth
DIW focus 1 / 2018
Large-scale fiscal consolidations and the implementation of structural reforms should help southern European countries resolve the crisis. But recent studies indicate that in conjunction with the low interest rate in the euro area, the austerity measures that has been imposed could have the opposite effect, leading to an increase in sovereign debt and economic slowdown. For this reason, a more balanced ...
2018| Mathias Klein
A regime shift towards increased in inflation expectations is credited with jumpstarting the recovery from the Great Depression in the United States. Germany experienced a recovery as fast and strong in the 1930s. What role did inflation expectations play at the start of this remarkable economic upturn? To answer this question, we study inflation expectations in Germany across two different methods: ...
(Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation: Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" ; 6)
| Volker Daniel, Lucas ter Steege
Refereed essays Web of Science
This paper uses a structural VAR model to study the effect of monetary policy on the delinquency rate of business loans and consumer credit. The VAR is identified using, jointly, several external instruments that reflect different approaches from the literature. Delinquency rates, defined as the rate of loans with overdue repayments relative to total loans, are found to decrease in response to an exogenous ...
International Journal of Central Banking
14 82018), 4, S. 327-358
| Michele Piffer
DIW Weekly Report 38/39 / 2018
The presently tenuous situation in Turkey will worsen if the government does not take appropriate policy action. In view of foreign investors’ loss of confidence, the cost of external financing is likely to rise while consumption and investment will fall, and the Turkish lira would depreciate further. The influx of foreign capital would dry up as well. Conservative estimates show that the country’s ...
2018| Alexander Kriwoluzky, Malte Rieth
Diskussionspapiere 1755 / 2018
This paper investigates the evolution of inflation dynamics in the five largest ASEAN countries between 1997 and 2017. To account for changes in the monetary policy frameworks since the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), the analysis is based on country-specific Phillips Curves allowing for time-varying parameters. The paper finds evidence of a higher degree of forward-looking dynamics and a better anchoring ...
2018| Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Juan Angel Garcia
135, XXXVI S.
| Annika Schnücker
Diskussionspapiere 1749 / 2018
We develop a structural vector autoregressive framework that combines external instruments and heteroskedasticity for identification of monetary policy shocks. We show that exploiting both types of information sharpens structural inference, allows testing the relevance and exogeneity condition for instruments separately using likelihood ratio tests, and facilitates the economic interpretation of the ...
2018| Thore Schlaak, Malte Rieth, Maximilian Podstawski
Refereed essays Web of Science
We analyze fiscal devaluation in a three-country model. The introduction of the third country, outside a monetary union, increases the expansionary effect of fiscal devaluation and the second country of the monetary union experiences a boom instead of a recession.
163 (2018), S. 13-16
| Philipp Engler, Sandra Pasch, Juha Tervala