Join us for an insightful presentation on the global impact of COVID-19 on public debt and the challenges it poses for policymakers. This lecture explore the effectiveness of different approaches to reducing debt-to-GDP ratios, considering econometric analyses and historical experiences. Followed by a discussion. Key findings include: Fiscal consolidations: Timely and well-designed fiscal...
In the 24 years since its introduction, the euro has experienced a financial crisis, a government debt crisis, a global pandemic, and an energy crisis—and survived. Using a model focusing on households, this Weekly Report shows that the monetary union’s stability is rooted in the fact that the middle class neither gains nor loses significantly relative to an independent currency following business ...
How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK2) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock horizontally—across countries—within the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution rather than vertically—that is, across the brackets of the union-wide ...
Negative policy rates can convince markets that deposit rates will remain lower-for-longer, even when current deposit rates are constrained by zero. This is the signalling channel of negative interest rates. We analyse the optimality and effectiveness of negative rates in the context of this novel transmission channel. In a stylized model, we prove two necessary conditions for optimality: time-consistency ...
The European Central Bank (ECB) is currently facing major challenges. Fragmentation of government bond yields across Member States of the European Economic and Monetary Union, based on different economic and fiscal policies, hampers a uniform transmission of monetary policy. At the same time, climate-related financial risks need to be addressed. In recent years, the ECB is meeting these challenges ...
We examine the causal relationship between US monetary policy shocks, exchange rates and currency excess returns for a sample of eight advanced countries over the period 1980M1 to 2022M11. We find that the dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate is the main driver of currency excess returns. The exchange rate is significantly affected by US monetary policy shocks, where the persistence of this shock ...