Topic Business Cycles

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442 results, from 1
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast: Crisis is gradually being overcome – align actions to lower growth

The Corona pandemic still shapes the economic situation in Germany. A complete normalisation of contact-intensive activities is not to be ex­pected in the short term. In addition, supply bottlenecks are ham­pering manufacturing for the time being. The German economy will reach nor­mal capacity utilisation in the course of 2022. In their autumn report, the leading economic research institutes ...

14.10.2021
Press Release

German economy will first pick up speed in 2022

DIW Berlin forecasting experts are lowering their forecast for 2021 from 3.2 to 2.1 percent - Supply bottlenecks and material shortages are weighing on German industry - Private consumption remains restrained - With growth of just under five percent, the German economy will pick up speed in 2022 once bottlenecks have been overcome and infection rates have fallen on a sustained basis - Inflation no ...

16.09.2021
Press Release

Pandemic delays upswing – Demography slows growth

In their spring report, the leading economic research institutes forecast an increase in gross domestic product of 3.7 percent in the current year and 3.9 percent in 2022. The renewed shutdown is delaying the economic recovery, but as soon as the risks of infection, particularly from vaccination, have been averted, a strong recovery will begin. The economy is likely to return to normal output levels ...

15.04.2021
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

German Economy with Delayed Recovery; Industry in a Tight Spot: Editorial

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt, Sandra Pasch
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

Global Economy: Advanced Economies Facing a Strong Upturn: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

Global recovery is progressing more slowly than was indicated in 2020 due to high coronavirus rates and related economic restrictions in Europe and Japan. Recently, a disparate picture has been forming: In the advanced economies, declining infection rates and continued progress in vaccination campaigns will presumably lead to a revival that will be especially noticeable in the retail and service sectors ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Sandra Pasch
DIW Weekly Report 23/24 / 2021

German Economy: Uncertainty Remains despite Rebound: DIW Economic Outlook Summer 2021

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control. Nevertheless, industry is robust overall, primarily due to good foreign business. In the service ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Laura Pagenhardt
Diskussionspapiere 1954 / 2021

Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks

We study the dynamic impact of Covid-19, economic mobility, and containment policy shocks. We use Bayesian panel structural vector autoregressions with daily data for 44 countries, identified through sign and zero restrictions. Incidence and mobility shocks raise cases and deaths significantly for two months. Restrictive policy shocks lower mobility immediately, cases after one week, and deaths after ...

2021| Annika Camehl, Malte Rieth
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2021

Global Economy: USA and China Leading the Way, Europe Lagging Behind: DIW Economic Outlook Spring 2021

The resurgence of the pandemic and renewed lockdowns have slowed the recovery of the global economy, but the overall losses will be less severe than after the first coronavirus wave in spring 2020. Industry in particular continues to develop well. In contrast, retail trade and personal services have been heavily affected, especially in hard-hit regions such as Europe. However, the fiscal stimulus cushions ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2021

German Economy Stuck in Stop-Go Situation: Editorial

2021| Claus Michelsen, Guido Baldi, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Marius Clemens, Geraldine Dany-Knedlik, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt
DIW Weekly Report 11 / 2021

German Economy between Lockdowns and Normality: DIW Economic Outlook Spring 2021

By lifting lockdown measures as coronavirus case numbers are rising and the vaccine rollout is proceeding slowly, the German economy is being sent on a stop-go course. Re-opening measures will probably be followed by renewed closures, at least regionally, in order to keep the spread of COVID-19 under control. Nevertheless, industry is robust overall, primarily due to good foreign business. In the service ...

2021| Claus Michelsen, Paul Berenberg-Gossler, Marius Clemens, Max Hanisch, Simon Junker, Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Laura Pagenhardt
442 results, from 1
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