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117 results, from 71
Externe referierte Aufsätze

When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries

This paper examines foreign exchange intervention based on novel daily data covering 33 countries from 1995 to 2011. We find that intervention is widely used and an effective policy tool, with a success rate in excess of 80 percent under some criteria. The policy works well in terms of smoothing the path of exchange rates, and in stabilizing the exchange rate in countries with narrow band regimes. ...

In: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11 (2019), 1, S. 132-156 | Marcel Fratzscher, Oliver Gloede, Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Tobias Stöhr
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Politicians’ Promotion Incentives and Bank Risk Exposure in China

This paper shows that politicians’ pressure to climb the career ladder increases bank risk exposure in their region. Chinese local politicians are set growth targets in their region that are relative to each other. Growth is stimulated by debt-financed programs which are mainly financed via bank loans. The stronger the performance pressure the riskier the respective local bank exposure becomes. This ...

In: Journal of Banking & Finance 99 (2019), S. 63-94 | Li Wang, Lukas Menkhoff, Michael Schröder, Xian Xu
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Tax Evasion in New Disguise? Examining Tax Havens' International Bank Deposits

Recent efforts to reduce international tax evasion focus on information exchange with tax havens. Using bilateral bank data for 1397 countrypairs in a balanced quarterly panel from 2003:I to 2017:IV, we first show that information-on-request treaties with tax havens reduce bank deposits in tax havens by 27.5%. Second, also deposits from tax havens in high tax countries decline after such treaties are ...

In: Journal of Public Economics 176 (2019), S. 53-78 | Lukas Menkhoff, Jakob Miethe
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Does Financial Literacy Improve Financial Inclusion? Cross Country Evidence

While financial inclusion is typically addressed by improving the financial infrastructure, we show that a higher degree of financial literacy also has a clear beneficial effect. We study this effect at the cross-country level, which allows us to consider institutional variation. Regarding “access to finance”, financial infrastructure and financial literacy are mainly substitutes. However, regarding ...

In: World Development 111 (2018), S. 84-96 | Antonia Grohmann, Theres Klühs, Lukas Menkhoff
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Does Financial Education Impact Financial Literacy and Financial Behavior, and If So, When?

In a meta-analysis of 126 impact evaluation studies, we find that financial education significantly impacts financial behavior and, to an even larger extent, financial literacy. These results also hold for the subsample of randomized experiments (RCTs). However, intervention impacts are highly heterogeneous: financial education is less effective for low-income clients as well as in low- and lower-middle–income ...

In: The World Bank Economic Review 31 (2017), 3, S. 611-630 | Tim Kaiser, Lukas Menkhoff
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Credit Market Structure and Collateral in Rural Thailand

This paper empirically examines reliance on collateral in different credit market segments—formal, semiformal and informal lending—of a developing rural financial market. Determinants of collateralization indicate that all three types of lenders price risk conventionally. Controlled for standard risk factors, however, formal lenders rely on collateral about 40 per cent more often than informal lenders. ...

In: Economic Notes 46 (2017), 3, S. 587-632 | Carmen Kislat, Lukas Menkhoff, Doris Neuberger
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Allais for the Poor: Relations to Ability, Information Processing, and Risk Attitudes

This paper complements evidence on the Allais paradox from advanced countries and educated people by a novel investigation in a poor rural area. The share of Allais-type behavior is indeed high and related to indicators of “lacking ability,” such as poor education, unemployment, and little financial sophistication. Based on prospective reference theory, we extend these characteristics by biased processing ...

In: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 54 (2017), 2, S. 129-156 | Tabea Herrmann, Olaf Hübner, Lukas Menkhoff, Ulrich Schmidt
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Currency Value

We assess the properties of currency value strategies based on real exchange rates. We find that real exchange rates have predictive power for the cross-section of currency excess returns. However, adjusting real exchange rates for key country-specific fundamentals (productivity, the quality of export goods, net foreign assets, and output gaps) better isolates information related to the currency risk ...

In: The Review of Financial Studies 30 (2017), 2, S. 416-441 | Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Estimating Risky Behavior with Multiple-Item Risk Measures

We compare seven established risk elicitation methods and investigate how robustly they explain eleven kinds of risky behavior with 760 individuals. Risk measures are positively correlated; however, their performance in explaining behavior is heterogeneous and, therefore, difficult to assess ex ante. Greater diversification across risk measures is conducive to closing this knowledge gap. What we find ...

In: Journal of Economic Psychology 59 (2017), S. 59-86 | Lukas Menkhoff, Sahra Sakha
Externe referierte Aufsätze

Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?

We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the US equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. The results tentatively improve over time, and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. In contrast, economic indicators work well only until the 1970s, but lose predictive power thereafter, even when considering the last crisis. Translating ...

In: International Journal of Forecasting 32 (2016), 4, S. 1193-1207 | Fabian Baetje, Lukas Menkhoff
117 results, from 71
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