Forecasting and Economic Policy Department Events

This paper addresses whether non-uniqueness of equilibrium is a substantive problem for policy analysis in New-Keynesian (NK) models. There would be a substantive problem if there were no compelling way to select among different equilibria that give different answers to critical policy questions. In fact there is: stability-under-learning. We focus our analysis on the efficacy of …fiscal policy ...

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We investigate whether changes in income distribution can explain current account developments in a sample of 20 countries for the period 1972-2007. We analyze the relationship between the personal and the functional income distribution in our sample, before disentangling their effects on the household and corporate financial balances and the current account. We find that rising (top-end) personal ...

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We study the growth effects of currency undervaluation when countries employ active exchange rate management policies or impose capital controls, using a panel dataset of 185 countries. Applying two-stage regressions, we find that changes in undervaluation driven by exchange rate management and capital control policies have no significant impact on economic growth. Undervaluation that leads to ...

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We study the interaction between contracting and equilibrium pricing when risk-averse hedgers purchase insurance from risk-neutral investors subject to moral hazard. Moral hazard limits risk-sharing. In the individually optimal contract, margins are called (after bad news) to improve risk-sharing. But margin calls depress the price of investors' assets, affecting other investors negatively. ...

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Many statistical applications require the forecast of a random variable of interest over several periods into the future. The sequence of individual forecasts, one period at a time, is called a path forecast, where the term path refers to the sequence of individual future realizations of the random variable. The problem of constructing a corresponding joint prediction region has been rather ...

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Presentation of the Asian Development Outlook 2016 by Juzhong Zhuang, Deputy Chief Economist of ADB. Juzhong Zhuang joined the ADB in 1997, and currently works in the Economics and Research Department. His division produces policy research on long-term development issues facing Asia and the Pacific and supports ADB’s operations to strengthen the economic rationale of its lending and non ...

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We ended 2015 with good news: For the first time in history, the number of extremely poor people dropped below 10 percent. The new sustainable development goals and the Paris climate deal bring momentum to our effort to lift the remaining 700 million poor out of poverty while generating climate-smart economic growth. Hardly ever before did so many governments, businesses, international ...

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Davide Furceri | IMF Research DepartmentBergljot Barkbu | Deputy Representative, IMF Europe Office in Paris and Brussels As highlighted in the IMF's article IV consultation report for the euro area, investment across the euro area remains below its pre crisis level. Its performance has been weaker than in most previous recessions and financial crises. The IMF analysis shows that much of this ...

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DIW Berlin and IMF cordially invite you to the Presentation on the forthcoming IMF book on "Jobs and Growth: Supporting the European Recovery" PresentersJesmin Rahman is Deputy Head of the Emerging Europe Unit in the IMF's European Department. Martin Schindler is Senior Economist in the IMF's European Department.Antonio Spilimbergo is Head of the Northeastern Unit in the IMF's European ...

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Masterclasses are a series of one- or two day courses on various topics in Economics, organized by the DIW Graduate Center. The target audience consists of graduate students in Economics at Berlin universities and research institutes. The GC Masterclasses are held on an irregular basis at DIW Berlin (about once a month) and are open to all affiliates of DIW Berlin, those of the BDPEMS program, and ...

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Website AIECE

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Vortrag: Markus K. Brunnermeier | Princeton UniversityKommentar: Dr. Christian Kastrop | Bundesministerium der FinanzenModeration: Dr. Ferdinand Fichtner | DIW BerlinEine europäische Schulden- und Fiskalstruktur ist nur gut, wenn sie auf zwei Säulen beruht. Zum einen muss ein institutioneller Rahmen geschaffen werden, der negative Externalitäten der Verschuldung einzelner Mitgliedsl ...

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