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Economic Bulletin

2016 Heat Monitor: "Second rent" lower despite higher heating energy consumption

Residential heating is responsible for one-fifth of Germany’s energy consumption. Heating costs were around 562 euros per year for an average apartment in 2016, which is more than a 13th month’s rent minus heating costs (Kaltmiete). These are the findings of the 2016 Heat Monitor, published by the German Institute for Economic Research and ista Deutschland GmbH. The report presents evaluations ...

20.09.2017| Claus Michelsen
Economic Bulletin

DIW Economic Outlook: German economy continues steady upswing with no sign of overheating

The German economy’s upswing is holding steady. The fine state of the world economy and robust domestic economic development are driving Germany’s GDP growth. After an unexpectedly strong first half of 2017, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin) forecasts 1.9 percent growth for Germany’s GDP this year and next. In June, DIW Berlin anticipated 1.5 percent growth for ...

08.09.2017
Economic Bulletin

The world economy and the euro area: broad-based upswing

This year and next, global GDP will grow more strongly than expected. The growth rate should be just under four percent. In developed economies, the continuing improvement in the job market situation will drive consumption. Corporate investment activity will also gain momentum. Over the forecast horizon, a slowly rising inflation rate and somewhat tighter monetary policy will gradually slow private ...

08.09.2017
Economic Bulletin

German economy still running at high capacity

The German economy is on track for continued growth. Due to the unexpectedly robust first six months of 2017, the German Institute for Economic Research is raising its forecast for GDP growth to 1.9 percent for the current year. This year and arguably for the coming two years, the country’s output will exceed potential output; nonetheless, there is no risk of overheating. Economic growth will ...

08.09.2017
Economic Bulletin

Increased labor market participation can’t do the job of mastering Germany’s demographic change in the future

In the last decade the available labor force has expanded in Germany—despite the decline in the working-age population. The reason: labor market participation has increased, for women in particular and older people in general. Also noticeable was a rise in qualification level because well-educated people have a particularly high propensity to participate in the labor market. Most recently, Germany’s ...

04.09.2017
Personnel news

Michael Hachula has successfully defended his dissertation

Michael Hachula, who works at the department of Forecasting and Economic Policy, has successfully defended his dissertation at the Freie Universität Berlin.The dissertation with the title "Essays on Unconventional Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations, and Commodity Prices" was supervised by Prof. Dr. Dieter Nautz (Freie Universität Berlin) and Dr. Christian J. Offermanns (Deutsche ...

30.06.2017
Economic Bulletin

No Germany-wide housing bubble but overvaluation in regional markets and segments

Although the housing prices in the 127 largest German cities have surged strongly in recent years, there is still no sign of a Germanywide housing bubble. In comparison with 2009, the price of condominiums has risen by around 55 percent. Single-family houses cost between 38 and 45 percent more in 2016 than seven years prior, and building lot prices have risen by around 63 percent. The study at hand ...

26.06.2017| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Claus Michelsen
Economic Bulletin

German economy on track

DIW Berlin's economic forecast by Ferdinand Fichtner, Guido Baldi, Karl Brenke, Christian Dreger, Hella Engerer, Marcel Fratzscher, Stefan Gebauer, Simon Junker, Claus Michelsen, Malte Rieth, Thore Schlaak, and Kristina van Deuverden Germany’s economic output is now experiencing significant and steady increases for the fourth year in a row – a trend that will also continue throughout the ...

21.06.2017| Claus Michelsen
Economic Bulletin

The world economy and the euro area: Despite risks, global recovery is stabilizing : DIW economic outlook

Global economic output is expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year, and with a slightly stronger dynamic in the coming year; both predictions match the figures proposed in DIW Berlin’s spring forecast, even though the year started off somewhat weaker than expected. But overall, economic recovery continues. Despite rising inflation rates, private consumption remains one of the main drivers in ...

21.06.2017| Claus Michelsen
Economic Bulletin

German economy in good shape

The German economy is in the midst of a robust economic cycle: the number of employed persons has reached historic highs and is still increasing powerfully; private household income is on the rise; and the public coffers are overflowing. Inflation is rising only gradually, partly because capacities are not overburdened. The mood is bright among consumers and firms alike, with economic development distributed ...

21.06.2017| Claus Michelsen
Interview

"Uncertainty remains one of the biggest impediments to global economic development": Eight Questions for Ferdinand Fichtner

Mr. Fichtner, is the German economy still on a path of growth? Yes—in fact, the German economy is developing quite powerfully. Growth in the first half of the year has been respectable, but we are expecting an even more significant expansion in the coming quarters, especially in light of the favorable labor market development.  [...]

21.06.2017| Ferdinand Fichtner
Economic Bulletin

Hourly wages in lower deciles no longer lagging behind when it comes to wage growth

For many years, only better-paid workers benefited from Germany’s real wage increases. In contrast, dependent employees with lower hourly wages suffered substantial losses, while the low-wage sector expanded. Around 2010, these trends came to an end. Now all wage groups benefit from wage increases—even if those in the middle of the distribution lag somewhat behind. At the very least, this ...

24.05.2017| Karl Brenke, Alexander S. Kritikos
Press Release

Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2017: Upturn in Germany strengthens in spite of global economic risks

Press release of the project group "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose": German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), ifo Institute, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

12.04.2017
Economic Bulletin

World economy gaining momentum, risks remain high

The world economy continues on its upward growth path, with global production expected to grow by 3.7 percent this year and slightly more than that in 2018. The economies in both the developed and the emerging countries are gaining momentum. Solid output growth is expected for the U.S. and euro area over the forecast period; China’s growth rates remain high, though they are declining somewhat; ...

20.03.2017| Claus Michelsen
Economic Bulletin

German economy: strong employment growth, weak investment activity

The German economy's upward growth trend continues, with the economic output expected to increase by 1.4 percent this year with slightly overloaded capacities. Employment growth remains strong with the creation of 600,000 new jobs, which has in turn led to an increase in private consumption – one of the key growth drivers of the German economy. The higher inflation rates are dampening purchasing ...

20.03.2017| Claus Michelsen
Interview

Spring 2017 economic forecast: interview with Ferdinand Fichtner

Mr. Fichtner, will the German economy be able to maintain 2016’s growth momentum over the course of the current year? Although Germany’s economic growth will be a bit lower in 2017, this is primarily due to the fact that there are fewer workdays this year than there were last year – and not because the economy is running out of steam. Another factor is the recent sharp increase in ...

20.03.2017| Ferdinand Fichtner
Economic Bulletin

How rising income inequality influenced economic growth in Germany

The cumulative growth rate of the German economy since reunification would have been around two percentage points higher if income inequality had remained constant. This is what simulations using the DIW Macroeconomic Model have shown. They were made under the assumption that the income distribution dynamics would not be influenced by any feedback effects of economic growth. In 2015, Germany’s ...

15.03.2017| Marius Clemens, Stefan Gebauer, Simon Junker
Interview

Rising income inequality inhibits consumer demand: five questions for Ferdinand Fichtner

Mr. Fichtner, DIW Berlin examined the relationship between rising income inequality and economic growth. Would Germany have higher growth if income inequality had not risen in recent years? Yes, Germany’s economic growth would actually have been somewhat higher if income inequality had not sharply increased between 1991 and 2015. The German economy showed an unre - alized growth potential of ...

15.03.2017| Ferdinand Fichtner
Economic Bulletin

Construction sector: full order books, good growth prospects

A significant rise in Germany’s construction volume is expected for this year and the next, even if the growth is not as pronounced as it was in 2016. According to DIW Berlin’s latest construction volume calculations, the sum of all new construction and building refurbishments will increase in real terms by 1.6 and 2.4 percent in 2017 and 2018, respectively, from a rate of 2.5 percent in ...

13.02.2017| Claus Michelsen
Press Release

Despite political uncertainty, German economy continues to expand – even as employment growth slows down

German economy’s growth rate will drop next year, primarily due to calendar effects – labor market expansion losing some momentum – numerous risks for the global economy According to a new forecast by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), the German economy’s upward trend will continue through 2017 and 2018 – even though the current global economy is ...

20.12.2016
133 results, from 41
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