DIW Weekly Report 1/2 / 2022, S. 3-13
Martin Gornig, Claus Michelsen, Laura Pagenhardt
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Sales in the construction industry will continue to increase strongly in 2022 and 2023. Overall, DIW Berlin estimates a nominal increase in construction volume of almost 13 percent in 2022 and six percent in 2023 to 585 billion euros. In 2021, construction volume increased by ten percent to 488 billion euros, which is around 15 percent of GDP. This shows that construction demand remains at a high level despite the coronavirus pandemic. It is also likely that costs for construction work in particular will rise sharply over the course of 2022 following the significant increase in 2021. On the one hand, this is due to the fact that producer prices are currently rising more rapidly than they have in decades. On the other hand, the construction backlog—the number of approved construction projects not yet completed—is still high and the public sector is expanding its investment budgets, which offers companies in the construction sector further leeway for price increases. Nevertheless, the rising prices are likely to result in lower real construction activity. This is likely to make it more difficult for the public sector to achieve its ambitious goals in the areas of infrastructure expansion and housing provision.
Keywords: Construction industry, residential construction, public infrastructure, economic outlook
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