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The Term Structure of Currency Futures' Risk Premia

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science

Kerstin Bernoth, Jürgen von Hagen, Casper de Vries

In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 54 (2022), 1, S. 5-38


The use of futures instead of forwards exchange contracts completes the maturity spectrum of the correlation between spot yields and the premium. We find that the forward premium puzzle appears to be a precrisis phenomenon and is only observed for maturities longer than about 1 month. Differences in the exposure to risk help to explain cross-sectional spreads in currency excess returns. However, this only applies for medium and longer maturities. Considering that most studies that test the validity of a risk-based approach to currency excess returns focus on short maturity securities, this explains why this approach is so often rejected.

Kerstin Bernoth

Deputy Head of Department in the Macroeconomics Department