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115 Ergebnisse, ab 71
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Politicians’ Promotion Incentives and Bank Risk Exposure in China

This paper shows that politicians’ pressure to climb the career ladder increases bank risk exposure in their region. Chinese local politicians are set growth targets in their region that are relative to each other. Growth is stimulated by debt-financed programs which are mainly financed via bank loans. The stronger the performance pressure the riskier the respective local bank exposure becomes. This ...

In: Journal of Banking & Finance 99 (2019), S. 63-94 | Li Wang, Lukas Menkhoff, Michael Schröder, Xian Xu
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Does Financial Literacy Improve Financial Inclusion? Cross Country Evidence

While financial inclusion is typically addressed by improving the financial infrastructure, we show that a higher degree of financial literacy also has a clear beneficial effect. We study this effect at the cross-country level, which allows us to consider institutional variation. Regarding “access to finance”, financial infrastructure and financial literacy are mainly substitutes. However, regarding ...

In: World Development 111 (2018), S. 84-96 | Antonia Grohmann, Theres Klühs, Lukas Menkhoff
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Credit Market Structure and Collateral in Rural Thailand

This paper empirically examines reliance on collateral in different credit market segments—formal, semiformal and informal lending—of a developing rural financial market. Determinants of collateralization indicate that all three types of lenders price risk conventionally. Controlled for standard risk factors, however, formal lenders rely on collateral about 40 per cent more often than informal lenders. ...

In: Economic Notes 46 (2017), 3, S. 587-632 | Carmen Kislat, Lukas Menkhoff, Doris Neuberger
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Does Financial Education Impact Financial Literacy and Financial Behavior, and If So, When?

In a meta-analysis of 126 impact evaluation studies, we find that financial education significantly impacts financial behavior and, to an even larger extent, financial literacy. These results also hold for the subsample of randomized experiments (RCTs). However, intervention impacts are highly heterogeneous: financial education is less effective for low-income clients as well as in low- and lower-middle–income ...

In: The World Bank Economic Review 31 (2017), 3, S. 611-630 | Tim Kaiser, Lukas Menkhoff
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Allais for the Poor: Relations to Ability, Information Processing, and Risk Attitudes

This paper complements evidence on the Allais paradox from advanced countries and educated people by a novel investigation in a poor rural area. The share of Allais-type behavior is indeed high and related to indicators of “lacking ability,” such as poor education, unemployment, and little financial sophistication. Based on prospective reference theory, we extend these characteristics by biased processing ...

In: Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 54 (2017), 2, S. 129-156 | Tabea Herrmann, Olaf Hübner, Lukas Menkhoff, Ulrich Schmidt
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Currency Value

We assess the properties of currency value strategies based on real exchange rates. We find that real exchange rates have predictive power for the cross-section of currency excess returns. However, adjusting real exchange rates for key country-specific fundamentals (productivity, the quality of export goods, net foreign assets, and output gaps) better isolates information related to the currency risk ...

In: The Review of Financial Studies 30 (2017), 2, S. 416-441 | Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf
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Estimating Risky Behavior with Multiple-Item Risk Measures

We compare seven established risk elicitation methods and investigate how robustly they explain eleven kinds of risky behavior with 760 individuals. Risk measures are positively correlated; however, their performance in explaining behavior is heterogeneous and, therefore, difficult to assess ex ante. Greater diversification across risk measures is conducive to closing this knowledge gap. What we find ...

In: Journal of Economic Psychology 59 (2017), S. 59-86 | Lukas Menkhoff, Sahra Sakha
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Equity Premium Prediction: Are Economic and Technical Indicators Unstable?

We show that technical indicators deliver stable economic value in predicting the US equity premium over the out-of-sample period from 1966 to 2014. The results tentatively improve over time, and beat alternatives over a large continuum of sub-periods. In contrast, economic indicators work well only until the 1970s, but lose predictive power thereafter, even when considering the last crisis. Translating ...

In: International Journal of Forecasting 32 (2016), 4, S. 1193-1207 | Fabian Baetje, Lukas Menkhoff
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Information Flows in Foreign Exchange Markets: Dissecting Customer Currency Trades

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange (FX) market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of FX end-users. The results suggest that order flows are highly informative about future exchange rates and provide significant economic value. We also find that different ...

In: The Journal of Finance 71 (2016), 2, S. 601-633 | Lukas Menkhoff, Lucio Sarno, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf
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Exchange Rate Forecasts and Expected Fundamentals

Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, ...

In: Journal of International Money and Finance 53 (2015), S. 235-256 | Christian D. Dick, Ronald MacDonald, Lukas Menkhoff
115 Ergebnisse, ab 71